Splinterlands Chaos Legion Release & Pack Opening!

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Just 12 hours ago, the @Splinterlands team released the Chaos Legion expansion of their blockchain card game! I have written many posts about the lead up to this moment that you can find here to get caught up:

My strategy evolved over the course of the pre-sale as the VOUCHER token stayed stuck around the $18-20 USD level and made my hopes and dreams of attaching Legionnaire status a lost cause without committing about $50,000 to purchasing pre-sale packs.

In the end, I purchased 100 packs and received 10 bonus packs for a total of 110 Chaos Legion pre-sale packs. Because I purchased in the pre-sale, I received the limited edition promo card, Doctor Blight, and will also have a chance at receiving additional cards after each additional million packs of Chaos Legion are sold. There is the potential for me to receive 13 additional different cards.

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Doctor Blight Airdrop Nerfed?

For the Doctor Blight airdrop, I received 3 non-gold versions in exchange for my purchase of 110 packs. There has been some chatter on the Splinterlands Maverick discord that the odds of this airdrop were nerfed versus what was shared with us during AMAs. Myself, and many others, recall being told that the Doctor Blight airdrop would be a 2% chance for each pre-sale pack, in addition to, a guaranteed 1 Doctor Blight for each 50 packs purchased.

Statistically, that would mean that on average, someone who has 110 packs should receive 2 guaranteed Doctor Blights and 2.2 additional from the 2% probability. Since I received only 3 of these cards, it appears that I got slightly less than the average of 4 that I would receive statistically. However, because I received more than 2 of the cards, it makes me think the system is allocating the cards correctly as if it was only distributing the guaranteed cards then I would have received 2. Now it is possible that I received the guaranteed 2 cards for the 100 packs I purchased and then managed to beat the odds and get 1 more card based on the 10 packs I have over the 100.

There are quite a few large purchasers (1000+ packs) that are reporting only receiving their guaranteed number of Doctor Blight cards. At these high purchase levels, something does appear to be amiss. If someone who purchased 1000 packs, is only receiving their guaranteed 20 cards, then it is obvious that the devs intended that guarantee to be a floor and not a guarantee plus the probability of 2% across their entire holdings. If this is the case, it will have major implications on the number of Doctor Blight cards released and is going to make this card even more rare than most people anticipated.

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After 12 hours, only 12,095 Doctor Blight cards have been opened. Based on the new realization that total circulation is more likely to be 2% of the total number of pre-sale packs and not 2% in addition to the 1 per 50 pack purchase guarantee, that means the total minting of this card will be around 20,000 and not up to 40,000 like originally thought. Currently, this is a huge amount of circulation compared to the other Chaos Legion cards, but remember that the other cards will have 15 million more packs opened and cause their circulation to explode higher. Doctor Blight is limited to the initial distribution to the pre-sale buyers and will likely have one of the lowest mintings of any Chaos Legion card given that the total expansion will be putting 75 million cards into circulation.


Chaos Legion Pack Opening

I had enough potions stocked up from daily quest rewards and such to open three of my Chaos Legion packs. Let's have a look at what I received:

Pack #1

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Pack #2

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Pack #3

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Common:

Venari Scout

Carrion Shade

Scavo Hireling

Crypt Beetle

Lava Spider

Supply Runner

Kulu Swimhunter

Chaos Knight

Hill Giant

Silent Sha-Vi

Rare:

Cursed Windeku

GF Cursed Windeku

Regal Peryton

Epic:

Temporal Master

Wave Brood


Phase 2 Chaos Legion Sale Begins

Today, Phase 2 of the pack release begins. The next 2 million packs will be available for purchase in exchange for $4 in credits and 1 VOUCHER token per pack. VOUCHERs will be airdropped to SPS stakers over the next 30 days. I have unstaked most of my SPS and am now only receiving 0.075 VOUCHER tokens for my 212.5 staked SPS. I don't expect VOUCHER prices to stay above $10 for much longer as the supply ramps up through the month.

I don't believe an announcement has been made yet about the stats of the next two airdrop cards for those who purchased in the pre-sale or Phase 2. A lot of the value in holding VOUCHERs in Phase 2 relies on the value of these airdropped cards. Considering how the Doctor Blight card has traded as low as $130 already, I don't imagine that the 2nd and 3rd airdrop cards will be more valuable than Doctor Blight.



Summary and Commentary

Unfortunately, I didn't receive any Legendary cards in these three packs. The rarest card I received was the Gold Foil Cursed Windeku. I think this card is actually pretty useful as it has the Thorns ability and a pretty high health level, allowing it to continue inflicting pain on enemies that attack it.

It's impossible to get an idea of card values right now because of the enormous volatility in the market. One thing I firmly believe though is that card prices will fall significantly over time as the additional 14 million packs are released. Because the devs have decided to flood the market with this new expansion, it is going to soak up a lot of the pent-up demand for cards and cause prices to fall across the spectrum.

However, just making some back of the envelope calculations, it appears that purchasing during the pre-sale was a losing preposition for me. If Doctor Blight cards continue selling for around $150, that means the "per pack value" of the card based on a 2% drop rate is $3. Doctor Blight is the only real difference between Pre-sale purchases and Phase 2 (unless you landed in the top 6 purchasers and got other benefits).

Considering that Pre-sale packs sold for 1 VOUCHER with a value of $20 and $3.60 in SPS, that means each pre-sale pack cost $23.60. Right now, you can get Phase 2 packs for 1 VOUCHER (trading at $10) plus $4 in credits, for a total of $14 each. That's a savings of $9.60 per pack. Meaning, I would have been better off buying in Phase 2 and buying Doctor Blight cards with the savings. I think waiting until the general sale at $4/pack may be an even better deal, unless the 2 airdrops during the Phase 2 are somehow worth at least $10 per pack (or 3x Doctor Blight, not likely).

Personally, I may consider selling off my unopened packs (currently $12 on Hive Engine) and waiting for the general sale at $4/pack, or even just focusing my purchases on specific cards once the market is flooded with them. It appears there is a significant FOMO premium built into these pre-sale and Phase 2 prices. Luck has never been on my side when opening card packs anyway!



Check out some other Pack Opening posts from around Splintertalk:

Opening Chaos Legion Packs (400 packs) - @azircon

Opening 59 Chaos Legion packs - @belemo

Opening 10 Splinterlands Presale Chaos Legion Card Packs! Finally! - @dksart

Pack Opening, A Treat Everyone Deserves | Splinterlands - @joetunex




The latest Brawl has just started, so don't forget to enter your frays and put your new Chaos Legion cards to use!

Check out my latest @Hive.Pizza Splinterlands #BrawlReport here: https://www.splintertalk.io/@shauner/shauner-s-19th-splinterlands-brawl



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10 comments

Thank you very much for your post!! You are very kind and lots of information. Got like 500 SPS stacked and maybe I get 5 vouchers. Would you sell them and w8 free sale? In which platform do u sell them? Hive engine?

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You're welcome! Right now, we have no idea what the Phase 2 airdrop cards will be so it's hard to decide if the VOUCHER is worth it to be used in Phase 2, or to sell them instead. Personally, I'm selling my VOUCHER airdrop tokens in Phase 2 and will try to buy packs for $4 during the regular sale.
!PIZZA

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That is awesome you were able to buy 100 packs.
I did manage to snag 11 and I have enough potions to open 2 :-)

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Yeah I was limited by potions too! Only had enough to open 3 packs. I don’t really want to buy potions since they come for free in daily quest and season chests.

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I feel the same way, plus I am curious to see how far the value of the unopened packs rise after all the presales 😀

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(Edited)

PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA! PIZZA!
@shauner! The Hive.Pizza team manually curated this post.
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You can now send $PIZZA tips in Discord via tip.cc!

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